Sarawak Election: Mid-Poll Review and a reality check
Technorati tags: Opinion Poll, State Elections, Sarawak, Analysis
In exactly one week’s time, the people of Sarawak will go to the polls to decide who they will be governed by for the next 5 years (give or take).
While the poll Walski put up hasn’t exactly been swamped by respondents, the number of people participating has just today breached the 100 mark. Which is not bad, considering that myAsylum doesn’t exactly get a whole load of traffic compared to the usual heavyweight suspects.
The result so far: the majority of this straw poll’s participants still think that Barisan Nasional will still helm the state post-April 16.
The poll results, as of earlier this afternoon
Which is a reasonable assessment, quite frankly. BN losing its 2/3 majority doesn’t mean that they don’t get a simple majority. But losing the currently held 2/3 majority is exactly what Walski thinks BN is afraid of, despite being able to form the next state government.
Undoubtedly, going by the media reports that Walski’s read, DAP has done a very good job in getting the multitudes in to listen to their political ceramah night after night. That these numbers will translate into votes is, of course, never a given, but is what DAP would hope for.
And so far, BN is pretty much singing the same tune of “vote for us and you’ll get development”. Is this working to sway the voters? Walski reckons that the answer will only be known for sure once April 16th is done and dusted…
(a reality check, and more, in the full post)
There probably is some reason for Pakatan to be optimistic, at least in the more urban areas. This short video was taken in Miri during one of the ceramahs held there on April 8 (Friday night).
Walski came across a prediction made by the Sarawak Headhunter, who thinks that BN is pretty much done for:
| PKR | DAP | PAS | BN | SNAP | IND |
| 18 | 14 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 4 |
Walski is not entirely sure on what factors Sarawak Headhunter’s bases his optimism on, but being that he’s is on the ground, the guy probably has some valid reasons why the election outcome is such. FYI – Sarawak Headhunter is a supporter of SNAP.
One thing that Walski can sense, however, is that many Sarawakians have had enough of their state being under the rule of Taib Mahmud (Wikipedia), who’s helmed the government for the last 30 years. This sentiment, however, is more prevalent among the urban and those with access to alternative news sources.
The reality is that uprooting an incumbent that has been in power for so long, while not impossible, is a Herculean task. The following two images comes courtesy of Facebook pal Mr. Tan Kok Wah (used with his kind consent), showing the distribution of seats in the coming Sarawak state election.
Candidate Tally for the 2011 Sarawak Polls
What’s telling about the two images above: the sheer number of non-one to one contests. The general opinion is that when this happens, the advantage is usually on the side of the incumbent. There are even two contests where 6 candidates are vying for the respective state seats, namely the Balai Ringin (N25) and Belaga (N57) seats.
Talk about a State Election of Polygonic Proportions, eh?
And what does this all mean? Well, to form a state government a party or coalition must win at least 36 seats for a simple majority, or 48 seats for 2/3 majority. Any result where even the party/coalition with the most seats won doesn’t get 36 or more, will result in a hung parliament.
If that indeed is the case come April 16, let the games begin… already there are allegations that SNAP (Sarawak National Party) is secretly being funded by the Barisan Nasional (BN), as revealed by the Sarawak Report website back in late March. If true, then we can expect a lot of wheeling and dealing, and ship-jumping post-elections.
Again, it’s no point to speculate further what will happen. We’ll have to wait until the polling on April 16 is complete, and the votes counted. At this juncture, there is no fore-polygon conclusion that can reasonably be made.
In the meantime, however, myAsylum’s poll is still open, and you can cast your opinion until midnight on April 15, the eve of the election. Do tell your friends to pop by and take part, and if you’d like to host the poll on your site, instructions for how to do that can be found here.
