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Monday, May 19, 2008

Aftershock Afterthoughts

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Related post: Late Breaking News: Mahathir quits UMNO

An anonymous commenter on Walski's last post made a pertinent point - if disgruntled party members start jumping the UMNO ship, who's going to be left to vote Pak Lah out?

Image hosting by PhotobucketOne possible scenario of Titanic proportions...
(courtesy of Benny Loh's Malaysian Cartoons)

Walski may not fully understand the dynamics of what makes UMNO tick (nor does he really want to), but perhaps what TDM has asked those disgruntled members to do may not make sense after all. Plus, he'd also asked those who decide to quit to not join any opposition parties, instead to wait until Pak Lah gets voted out of the party.

The first person, it seems, to have also jumped ship is veteran UMNO member Sanusi Junid, but really... in the real-world sense, this guy following suit doesn't amount to a hill of has-beans...

Unless, of course, he's talking about those who have been elected as MPs under the UMNO/BN ticket.

Now that would make life a lot more interesting, although not at all in the way TDM had in mind..
(tsunami after tsunami, and more, in the full post)

So, what are the possible scenarios we have here?

If all those who agree with what the Tun has done follow suit, then those left behind may or may not still be in support of Pak Lah helming UMNO. It's a gamble, in other words. But one thing's for sure - expect to hear from those vying for the presidential post. Very soon.

Now, what if the newly elected MP members of UMNO quit? Now, that would certainly have a bigger repercussion. Even if those quitters don't hop on anybody else's political canoe, it may leave BN without even a simple majority in Parliament. At the very least, a new mandate from those constituencies affected would be needed.

And it appears that Walski's not alone in thinking along these lines...

It looks like what started out as a peaceful, contemplative Vesak Day has turned into another kettle of political fish altogether...